I’ve crunched the numbers on Reform’s polling – here’s what it really means for Nigel Farage, writes Professor John Curtice

The two parties have certainly been engaged in an existential battle over the last two years. At the height of Reform’s popularity, a year ago, as many as one in three of those who voted Conservative at the last general election were saying they were now backing Reform – well above the one in eight 2024 Labour voters who had switched to Reform.

Now, in contrast, only one in five 2024 Conservative supporters are saying they will vote for Reform.

Meanwhile, the Conservatives are now even winning over one in ten of those who voted for Nigel Farage’s party two years ago – a switch that hitherto very few have been making.

This turnaround has been accompanied by a marked change in the popularity of the parties’ respective leaders.