Despite being mathematically eliminated, the Atlanta Falcons could play a major factor in deciding the NFC South.
CHARLOTTE, N.C. β The Carolina PanthersΒ missed an opportunity to clinch a playoff spot on Sunday but simultaneously opened the door for a nonsensical opportunity.
Carolina (8-8) and Tampa Bay (7-9) lost on Sunday, potentially setting up a “winner-take-all” scenario for their Week 18 contest on Saturday.Β
The Panthers lead the NFC South by one game ahead of the Buccaneers. Carolina’s easiest postseason path, naturally, is to beat Tampa Bay. Conversely, if the Buccaneers beat the Panthers, they will finish with the same record, but Tampa Bay would own the divisional record tiebreaker.
However, a third team in the division could dramatically swing things in Carolina’s favor.
Atlanta is mathematically eliminated from the postseason, but it can end the season with an 8-9 record by winning its final two games.Β
If the Falcons manage to beat the Rams on Monday and the Saints in Week 18, and the Buccaneers beat the Panthers, it would create a three-way tie for the division. The Panthers would win the tiebreaker in this scenario based on their record in head-to-head games between the three teams.
If this scenario happens, here’s how the division order would be determined:
- Panthers (8-9) (2-0 vs Atlanta, 1-1 vs Tampa Bay)
- Buccaneers (8-9) (1-1 vs Atlanta, 1-1 vs Carolina)
- Falcons (8-9) (1-1 vs Tampa Bay, 0-2 vs Carolina)
The Panthers’ sweep over the Falcons could ultimately spring them a division title.
In order for this scenario to play out, Atlanta will need to defeat the Rams, who are fighting for the NFC West and the No. 1 seed. The Falcons will also need to beat the Saints, who have won their last four games after a 2-10 start.
Update (Monday at 11 p.m.):Β The Falcons beat the Rams, 27-24, keeping this scenario alive.
Three-way division ties are rare, but not unheard of. At least five previous divisions have ended with three-way ties, the last being the 2011 AFC West. This year’s NFC West could potentially end with a three-way tie.
The Panthers face the Buccaneers on Saturday at 4:30 p.m. The Falcons and Saints kick off at 1 p.m. on Sunday.