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The El NiΓ±o weather phenomenon is set to intensify further into 2027 and could be the strongest ever, raising risks of extreme weather into next year, the World βMeteorological Organization said on Thursday.
“If this trajectory continues, it may be stronger than anything since our monitoring began. So literally off the charts we have used for the past four decades,” WMO βSecretary-General Celeste Saulo told a Geneva news conference.
βThe UN weather agency said its forecasts showed a near 100 per cent likelihood that El NiΓ±o will persist through February 2027, fuelled by βexceptionally warm Pacific Ocean temperatures. This is the first time β it has expressed β such a degree of certainty, the WMO βsaid.
A very strong El NiΓ±o can significantly shift rainfall and temperature patterns worldwide, and fuel extreme weather like typhoons.
“El NiΓ±o is being supersized before our eyes. The science leaves no room for doubt: β The planet is in uncharted waters, and those waters are heating up,” said United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres.
El NiΓ±o is a periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in βthe eastern Pacific caused by weakening trade winds. It occurs naturally every two to seven years and tends to last up to 12 months, causing intense rains and droughts across Latin America.
This year’s phenomenon βhas already had an impact on soft commodities in tropical areas, causing a severe food crisis across β Central America’s Dry Corridor.
It is set to peak toward the end β of this year, the WMO said in a statement. But its effects will β continue β into 2027 and are set βto leave higher global temperatures next year in its wake, Saulo said.
Saulo said βthe WMO was stepping β up preparedness and early warning efforts in preparation.
“WMO is committed to working closely with partners across the United Nations and humanitarian system to provide the climate intelligence and insights needed to support disaster management and climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture, health, energy and water β resources,” she said.
Some climate models predict 2026 will be an El NiΓ±o year β and that it’ll be a particularly strong one. CBCβs Nick Logan breaks down what that means, and what Canadians can expect.